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| International Monetary Funds (IMF) |
BANGKOK — As artificial intelligence races ahead in advanced economies, leaders of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund opened their 2026 Annual Meetings with a clear message to developing nations: adopt the technology carefully, or risk deepening inequality, weakening job creation, and straining public finances. At the same time, Nigeria’s finance team used the gatherings in Thailand to showcase policy reforms and court private capital, arguing that macroeconomic stabilisation is now translating into higher growth, stronger revenues and fresh investment opportunities.
The discussions, held at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center, crystallised around a panel titled “Small AI: More and Better Jobs.” World Bank Group President Ajay Banga, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva and Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam framed AI not as an inevitable job destroyer for the Global South, but as a tool that must be shaped deliberately if it is to expand opportunity rather than concentrate returns on capital.
The Demographic Imperative and the Limits of Growth Alone
Banga placed the challenge in stark demographic terms. Over the next 15 years, roughly 1.2 billion young people will turn 18, the overwhelming majority in emerging and developing economies. This cohort represents a potential demographic dividend—but only if countries deliver healthcare, education, skills and, above all, productive employment. The World Bank has accordingly shifted its focus so that infrastructure, schools, clinics and training programmes are evaluated through the lens of job creation.
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“Employment should not be defined solely by working for a large or small company,” Banga said, “but should include entrepreneurship and other activities that enable people to contribute productively to society and earn a dignified living.”
He noted that the private sector already generates 75–85 per cent of jobs in most countries, so governments’ primary role is to provide enabling infrastructure, transparent governance and risk-mitigation tools that crowd in private capital.
Tharman reinforced the point with evidence from Asia’s largest economies. China and India have recorded solid growth yet relatively weak job creation. “Growth is going to be critical to secure good jobs, but growth is not itself going to be sufficient,” he said. Without proactive policy, AI risks widening that divergence further—both within countries and between advanced and developing ones. He called for governments to partner with the private sector to protect the first rung of the career ladder for new graduates, whose entry-level opportunities are already contracting in AI-exposed sectors, and to support new forms of work such as “one-person companies” empowered by accessible technology.
“Small AI” Versus Frontier Models
The leaders drew a sharp distinction between the capital- and energy-intensive large language models dominating headlines in the United States and China, and what Banga calls “small AI”—affordable, task-specific applications that can run on basic devices, in local languages and with limited connectivity. These tools, they argued, can raise productivity in precisely the sectors that employ large numbers of people in developing economies: smallholder agriculture, primary healthcare, tourism, infrastructure and value-added manufacturing.
Banga has repeatedly cited practical examples: an illiterate farmer in India using a basic phone camera to diagnose crop disease and receive treatment advice, or primary-care clinics in remote areas using AI to triage patients and guide community health workers. Such applications expand rather than replace human work, he contends, and do not require the data-centre infrastructure few developing countries possess.
Georgieva described the broader labour-market impact as a “slow-moving tsunami.” IMF analysis suggests AI could eventually augment, downgrade or eliminate about 40 per cent of jobs globally—60 per cent in advanced economies and roughly 23 per cent in low-income countries. The lower exposure in poorer nations is not necessarily protective; it often reflects slower adoption and weaker digital foundations. The bigger fiscal risk, she warned, is a structural shift from labour to capital. Governments have traditionally taxed people and labour-related activity. “If AI changes the structure of the labour market, and then there is less labour, more capital—what do we tax?” she asked. Public revenues could come under pressure just as societies need resources to retrain workers and support those left behind.
Nigeria’s Pitch: From Stability to Investment
Against this global backdrop, Nigeria’s delegation, led by Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy Taiwo Oyedele and including Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso, used the meetings to present the country’s reform story and seek partnerships. On the sidelines, Oyedele and Cardoso met Banga to review progress and discuss the next phase: converting macroeconomic stability into faster growth, higher private investment and stronger domestic revenues.
According to the Finance Ministry, Banga acknowledged a dramatic rise in private capital inflows—from about $300 million in 2023 to nearly $6 billion in 2026—and noted the tax-to-GDP ratio’s climb from roughly 7 per cent to 12.5 per cent. The meeting explored greater use of World Bank guarantee instruments to de-risk infrastructure projects, with power and human capital flagged as priorities. These conversations sit within a broader investor outreach that emphasises fiscal and foreign-exchange reforms, policy predictability and the rule of law.
Nigeria’s case is particularly salient. The country has a large, youthful population and is already emerging as one of Africa’s leading AI hubs, alongside Kenya and South Africa. World Bank analysis shows significant AI adoption among larger Nigerian firms and growing research output, though the sophistication of applications remains lower than in advanced economies and is constrained by electricity, connectivity and digital infrastructure gaps. The government has begun deploying tools such as Service Wise GPT for civil servants, signalling official interest in practical AI.
Opportunity Meets Execution Risk
The alignment between the global conversation and Nigeria’s priorities is striking. The sectors Banga prioritises—agriculture, primary healthcare, tourism, infrastructure and manufacturing—are precisely those where Nigeria needs productivity gains and large-scale job creation. “Small AI” applications that improve crop yields, support rural clinics, optimise logistics or assist small manufacturers could help absorb the youth bulge without waiting for a full digital-infrastructure leap.
Yet the risks are real. If AI adoption remains concentrated among larger firms and urban centres, it could widen domestic inequality. Fiscal pressures already constrain Nigeria’s ability to invest in skills and social protection; a further shift toward capital-intensive growth would complicate revenue mobilisation. The reforms that have stabilised the macroeconomy and attracted capital must therefore be paired with deliberate investments in electricity, broadband, digital literacy and lifelong learning—precisely the complementary policies the IMF and World Bank are urging.
There is also a timing issue. Entry-level jobs are the first to feel AI’s effects in advanced economies. Nigeria’s large cohort of new graduates and school leavers will need pathways that combine technical skills with the soft and entrepreneurial capabilities that machines still struggle to replicate. Tharman’s emphasis on applied learning, work-study programmes and incentives for firms to hire young workers offers a useful template.
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Looking Ahead
The Bangkok meetings underscored that AI is no longer a distant prospect for developing countries. It is arriving unevenly, and the distribution of its benefits will depend on policy choices made now.
For Nigeria, the opportunity is to position itself not merely as a recipient of technology transferred from elsewhere, but as a laboratory for “small AI” solutions tailored to African realities—solutions that raise productivity in labour-intensive sectors and expand the circle of those who can earn a dignified living.
Whether that vision materialises will hinge on execution: sustaining the reform momentum that has already boosted capital inflows and revenues, crowding in private investment at scale, and ensuring that technology serves the 1.2 billion young people entering the global workforce rather than leaving them behind. The World Bank and IMF have framed the challenge clearly. Nigeria’s delegation has arrived with a reform narrative and an investment prospectus. The test will be converting both into broad-based jobs and inclusive growth.
Samuel O. Sulaimon is the founder and Editor-in-Chief of Naijapiz. He covers News, Sports, Finance, Faiths, Education, Politics and Technology.
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