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| Vice President — Kashim Shettima |
Vice President Kashim Shettima is actively consolidating northern support for President Bola Tinubu’s re-election, while Christian groups attempt a late consensus among opposition figures that deliberately sidelines former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Ruling-party proxies project mathematical certainty of victory for the incumbent based on vote splits, even as digital experiments and personal barbs sharpen the early campaign atmosphere.
These developments, unfolding in mid-October 2026 just days before the formal inauguration of the APC Presidential Campaign Council, reveal a race already shaped by structural realities more than pure policy debate: the enduring weight of the North, the unresolved controversy of the Muslim-Muslim ticket, and the opposition’s fragmentation across parties and personalities.
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Shettima’s Northern Charm Offensive
On Monday, October 12, Shettima hosted a closed-door meeting at the Presidential Villa with leaders of the National Directorate of Arewa for Asiwaju Movement, a northern support group for Tinubu. The delegation included former Kogi Governor Yahaya Bello, former Jigawa Governor Abubakar Badaru (the group’s Director-General), former Plateau Governor Simon Lalong, and other ex-governors, ministers, and figures such as NDLEA Director-General Brig. Gen. Buba Marwa (retd.) and Special Adviser Hadiza Bala-Usman.
Shettima used the occasion to deliver a clear message: the North has nothing to fear from another Tinubu term and stands to gain more. He pointed to agricultural interventions, noting that the Bank of Agriculture had disbursed N450 billion to 700,000 smallholder farmers nationwide, with about 70 percent of beneficiaries in the North. “I can assure you that the President loves the North and the President will work for the North,” he said. He urged northern leaders to close ranks for the region’s economic development and the welfare of its people, framing continuity as the path to consolidating appointments, projects, and programmes already underway.
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Badaru pledged sustained mobilisation, including outreach to Muslim and Christian clerics. Former Kano Governor Ibrahim Shekarau, associated with the group’s Board of Trustees, reinforced the message that the North was ready and dismissed claims of neglect as mischievous. The timing was deliberate: the APC Presidential Campaign Council inauguration was set for October 14 at the State House Conference Centre, with a campaign flag-off planned for Kaduna on October 24. von.gov.ng
This outreach fits a broader pattern. Shettima, a former Borno governor with deep northern roots, has been the administration’s primary bridge to the region since 2023. Retaining him on the ticket, despite periodic speculation about a Christian running mate to address Muslim-Muslim ticket criticisms, signals the APC’s calculation that northern structural strength outweighs southern religious sensitivities in the short term. Similar mobilisations in the North-Central (led by SGF George Akume and governors) and North-East have already produced formal endorsements.
Opposition Consensus Reopens—Without Atiku
Parallel to this, the Christian Social Movement of Nigeria (CSMN) is reviving efforts at a Christian Political Consensus Project. The group invited 13 Christian presidential candidates, including Peter Obi (Nigeria Democratic Congress), Seyi Makinde (Allied Peoples Movement), and Donald Duke (Peoples Redemption Party), to dialogue on harmonising interests.
Elder Sunday Oibe, Chairman of the CSMN Governing Council, stressed that the process aims at ethical leadership capable of tackling security and governance failures. It is not coercive: no candidate is required to withdraw. The initiative reflects long-standing Christian anxieties about the Muslim-Muslim ticket, which critics argue has tilted national balance since 2023. CSMN has previously called for rejection of such tickets and even constitutional reset, framing 2027 as a chance to restore equity.
Notably absent is Atiku Abubakar, the African Democratic Congress candidate (running with Rotimi Amaechi). Earlier opposition consensus attempts, including through informal coalitions, have repeatedly stalled over personal ambitions and regional calculations. Atiku’s northern base and Obi’s southern/eastern appeal have proved difficult to fuse, while Makinde’s entry adds another southern progressive voice. INEC’s final list of 18 candidates underscores the fragmentation: Tinubu/Shettima (APC), Atiku/Amaechi (ADC), Obi/Kwankwaso (NDC), Makinde, Duke, and others.
History offers caution. Attempts at opposition unity ahead of previous cycles often dissolved under the weight of ego, funding, and ethnic arithmetic. The CSMN effort, focused specifically on Christian candidates, may consolidate one voting bloc but risks further isolating Atiku’s traditional northern Muslim support without delivering a single viable challenger.
Why Tinubu Looks Favoured
The Grassroots Mobilisation Initiative (GMI), a pro-Tinubu group, issued a blunt assessment: a divided opposition makes victory “mathematically impossible.” National Coordinator Samaila Musa’s analysis maps the six zones:
• South-West is locked for Tinubu.
• South-East, once more open, is now heavily influenced by Obi and governors leaning toward the incumbent, eroding older opposition strongholds.
• North-West risks a split: Rabiu Kwankwaso (Obi’s running mate) could take substantial votes in Kano, Jigawa, and parts of Katsina, drawing directly from Atiku’s base.
• North-East becomes a battleground among Shettima, APC governors, and Atiku.
• North-Central vote fragmentation further dilutes opposition totals.
Musa invoked historical precedent: Muhammadu Buhari’s northern strength alone was insufficient until the 2015 alliance with Tinubu delivered southern support. “Without Southern states, any presidential bid remains dead on arrival,” the group argued.
An APC chieftain, Dr Iliyasu Musa Kwankwaso, reinforced the point that northern voters are moving beyond pure ethnic or regional loyalty. “The North has no candidate for 2027 because the two candidates from the North are not of the people.
Ethno-political card will not favour them,” he said, pointing instead to governance records and federal projects.
This analysis is self-interested, yet it tracks observable realities. Tinubu’s incumbency advantages—party structure, governors, federal resources, and control of the narrative around reforms—remain formidable even amid economic hardship. Northern discontent over insecurity, cost of living, and perceived under-delivery exists, but organised alternatives have yet to coalesce around a single figure who can simultaneously hold the North and break into the South.
Personal Sparring and Digital Experiments
The temperature rose further when the APC Presidential Campaign Council, through spokesperson Dele Alake, criticised Atiku for repeatedly addressing Tinubu simply as “Bola.” The council called it disrespectful to the office and evidence that ambition had eroded statesmanship. At the same time, it instructed its own members to continue treating Atiku with the courtesies due a former vice president, signalling an intent to keep the campaign issue-based.
Meanwhile, Peter Obi made an unexpected appearance on a TikTok Live hosted by Emir Sirdam Show. Viewers sent virtual gifts—flowers, lions, universe tokens—while filters playfully altered his appearance. Obi reacted with mild surprise: “I am wondering what is happening to me this evening.” He used the platform to reiterate inclusivity pledges: annual visits to every state, holidays spent across geopolitical zones, and town-hall engagement to counter perceptions of marginalisation. The moment highlighted how younger, digital-native audiences are becoming a distinct campaign theatre, one traditional politicians are only beginning to master.
Broader Stakes
These episodes sit against deeper structural questions. The Muslim-Muslim ticket continues to generate Christian mobilisation and constitutional debate. Power-rotation arguments (southern continuity after Buhari’s northern tenure) compete with performance-based claims. Economic reforms—subsidy removal, FX liberalisation, agricultural financing—have produced macroeconomic indicators (higher reserves, improved oil output) that the administration highlights, yet daily hardship remains the lived reality for many voters, especially in the North.
Opposition success would require either a genuine consensus candidate who can bridge regions or a dramatic collapse in APC cohesion. Neither appears imminent. Tinubu’s team is treating the North as the decisive theatre while locking down the South-West and peeling support elsewhere through incumbency.
Shettima’s message is straightforward: continuity delivers more for the region that delivered the presidency in 2023.
Whether northern voters accept that bargain, or whether opposition fragmentation proves terminal, will define January 16, 2027. For now, the early positioning favours the incumbent’s coalition of structure, incumbency, and calculated regional outreach over the opposition’s still-unresolved search for unity.
Samuel O. Sulaimon is the founder and Editor-in-Chief of Naijapiz. He covers News, Sports, Finance, Faiths, Education, Politics and Technology.
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