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| Abdulaziz Yari with President Tinubu |
KADUNA — In a charged declaration that mixed political reciprocity, economic optimism and regional mobilisation, Senator Abdulaziz Yari, Director-General of the All Progressives Congress (APC) Presidential Campaign Council, told President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on Saturday that northern Nigeria stands “101 per cent” behind his re-election bid.
Speaking at the APC presidential campaign flag-off at Ahmadu Bello Stadium in Kaduna, Yari framed the region’s support as both a repayment of political debt and a vote of confidence in the administration’s record. “Mr President, I want you to listen to us carefully. Northern Nigeria is 101 per cent, by God’s grace, for you, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu,” he said. “And the promise we have made, you are going to see it on January 16, 2027.”
The choice of Kaduna was deliberate. Once the administrative capital of the old Northern Region, the city remains a symbolic and practical centre of northern political life. Party leaders, governors, traditional rulers and clerics filled the venue, underscoring the campaign’s early emphasis on the North—the region that delivered decisive votes in 2015 and 2019 for Muhammadu Buhari and remains indispensable in any national contest.
Reciprocity and the Politics of Rotation
Yari’s language did not emerge in isolation. For months the former Zamfara governor and current senator has argued that the North owes Tinubu a political debt. Tinubu, he has repeatedly recalled, resisted internal pressure in 2019 to challenge Buhari for the APC ticket, insisting it was the North’s turn to complete an eight-year presidential cycle.
“For us in the north, I think it is time for us to pay Tinubu back for allowing the north to complete its full term,” Yari said in earlier engagements in Lagos and elsewhere.
This narrative sits within Nigeria’s informal but powerful tradition of power rotation between North and South. Yari has publicly urged northerners not to demand an immediate return of the presidency in 2027, arguing that allowing Tinubu to complete two terms would preserve national cohesion and position the North for 2031. Critics within and outside the region see the argument as self-serving; supporters view it as pragmatic recognition that no candidate can win the presidency without meaningful cross-regional support.
The campaign council has backed words with outreach. In the days before the Kaduna rally, Yari led delegations to the emirs of Gwandu, Katsina, Daura and Zaria, seeking prayers and counsel rather than formal endorsements. Similar visits to southern traditional rulers, including the Ooni of Ife and the Emir of Ilorin, signal an attempt to build a broad elite consensus.
Campaigning on the Record—and Contesting the Narrative
Yari insisted the APC would run on performance rather than personality or ethnicity. He listed infrastructure, health, education, human capital development and social welfare as central themes.
He also pushed back against claims that the administration has neglected farmers, asserting that about two million farmers have committed to supporting Tinubu. “They are lying that the government of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu does not like farmers, that you hate farmers. That is not true,” he said.
A notable feature of his speech was the accusation that critics are deploying artificial intelligence to spread false claims. In a political environment already saturated with social-media disinformation, the charge reflects growing anxiety among incumbents about synthetic content and coordinated online campaigns.
On the economy, Yari offered a set of figures that the administration and its supporters have promoted with increasing frequency. He claimed the naira had moved from levels approaching ₦1,800 to the dollar toward about ₦1,300; that foreign reserves had risen from roughly $3.9 billion (a figure widely understood to refer to net usable reserves at a particularly low point) to between $54 billion and $57.7 billion; and that the trade balance had improved from about ₦44 billion in 2023 to ₦7.5 trillion.
Independent and official data broadly support the direction of these claims, even if precise baselines and definitions vary. Central Bank and government reports show gross external reserves climbing above $50–55 billion by mid-to-late 2026, recovering from the sharp pressures of 2023–2024.
The naira has stabilised relative to the chaotic multiple-rate regime Tinubu inherited, though it remains far weaker than pre-2023 levels. Trade statistics have recorded consistent surpluses in recent quarters, driven by higher oil production, refined petroleum exports and non-oil improvements.
These macroeconomic indicators coexist with continued hardship for many households. Subsidy removal and exchange-rate unification produced sharp price increases that tested public patience.
The government’s argument is that the painful adjustment has begun to yield fiscal space, reserve buffers and a more credible policy framework—points recently acknowledged in positive outlook revisions by rating agencies such as Fitch.
Governors as Commanders, Continuity as Theme
Yari praised APC governors as “commanders in the states” and pledged that the campaign council would complement their work. Kaduna Governor Uba Sani, hosting the flag-off, reinforced the message, highlighting federal interventions in roads and security in the North, including funding for the long-abandoned Kaduna–Birnin Gwari corridor.
The broader strategy is clear: treat the 2027 election as a referendum on continuity of reforms rather than a pure regional contest. By appointing a northern senator as campaign director-general and launching in the North’s historic political capital, Tinubu’s team is signalling that it does not take northern votes for granted even while invoking the language of reciprocity.
The Road Ahead
Nigeria’s presidential election is scheduled for 16 January 2027. The APC enters the contest as the incumbent with control of a majority of states, significant financial and organisational resources, and a narrative of economic stabilisation.
Opposition parties will focus on the cost-of-living crisis, insecurity in parts of the North, and questions about the social impact of reforms.
Yari’s “101 per cent” claim is classic campaign hyperbole. No region votes with absolute uniformity. Yet the intensity of elite consultation, the choice of venue, and the careful framing of political debt and performance suggest the APC views the North as both a historical obligation and a decisive battlefield. Whether the promise materialises will depend less on stadium declarations than on how ordinary voters—farmers, traders, civil servants and youth—weigh three years of painful adjustment against the promise of eventual recovery when they cast their ballots in January 2027.
For now, the ruling party has planted its flag in Kaduna and declared the North’s support not merely expected, but assured. The coming months will test whether that assurance holds.
Samuel O. Sulaimon is the founder and Editor-in-Chief of Naijapiz. He covers Global, News, Sports, Finance, Faiths, Education, Politics and Technology.
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